Heathouse Hotheads - Footballguys.com team analysis

QB: Andrew Luck, Michael Vick
RB: Trent Richardson, Alfred Morris, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Roy Helu, Ryan Williams
WR: Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Anquan Boldin, Andre Roberts
TE: Vernon Davis, Jordan Cameron
PK: Phil Dawson

Overview:

Let's start by remarking that we appreciate your old-school leanings: you have a team marked by strength at the running back position. Because the position is so sought after, a team constructed like this usually has a chance to make the playoffs. Your strength at tight end is also a plus, but with the quarterback and wide receiver both being less strong, you may need to do something to change the outlook of this team. Your deficiencies are likely to show themselves through the bye weeks, so try to manuever early in improving the quarterback and/or receiver positions before week four.

Keep an eye out for quarterbacks like Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck from last year, Cam Newton the year before, Michael Vick and Josh Freeman in 2010, and Matt Cassel and Kurt Warner in 2008. All were available cheap in August, and all contributed to fantasy championship teams. Similarly, wide receivers like James Jones and Cecil Shorts were available after a lot of the drafts. Landing some of this year's top waiver players would be a huge help, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.

Bottom line:
With great inseason management, we think you have about a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 65 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 48 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 13 of 2010:

Reggie Wayne vs. DAL: 200 receiving yards, 1 TD
Michael Vick vs. HOU: 302 passing yards, 3 TD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis vs. NYJ: 79 combined yards, 2 TD
Vernon Davis vs. GB: 126 receiving yards, 1 TD
Anquan Boldin vs. PIT: 118 receiving yards, 1 TD

QB Summary:

We have Andrew Luck rated #10 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. And we're not crazy about Michael Vick (ranked #22 among quarterbacks) as a backup. If Luck turns in the season we expect, this position won't ruin you, but it probably won't be a strength either. And if things go wrong, it could be a long year at QB.

Incidentally, Vick has what we project as a neutral matchup (NYG) during Luck's bye.

A quick note about the Luck/Reggie Wayne hookup you've got here: while we think the effect of the quarterback/receiver hookup has largely been exaggerated in fantasy football circles, it does have a tendency to make your team somewhat more inconsistent than comparable scoring duos from different NFL teams. But if you like the players at both ends of the connection, we do not see any need to make a change because of it.

RB Summary:

Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 2.7 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Trent Richardson ranked fourth and Alfred Morris ranked 11th.

Your bench doesn't look quite as strong. We see BenJarvus Green-Ellis as an average third running back.

Since you're strong at the position, you probably don't absolutely need to roster more than three players here. Stashing Roy Helu, however, is probably a wise move in case something happens to Morris. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some of our staffers have BenJarvus Green-Ellis as high as #28, which would make him an above average third running back. Jeff Pasquino's take: "The Bengals added a new rookie tailback to the mix in Round 2 of the NFL Draft, selecting Giovani Bernard. The Bengals are building their offensive weapons, and now have both Bernard and veteran BenJarvus Green-Ellis as a two-back committee for this year. Bernard will get some work as both a third-down back and also likely get a few series himself this season, but Green-Ellis will likely get more total rushes and goal line chances for 2013. "

Roy Helu is ranked #47 by some of our writers, which would make him a fine fourth running back. Jason Wood reasons, "Helu has strung together a healthy preseason and re-asserted himself as the clear cut #2 in D.C. His skills as a pass catcher position him to play a 3rd down role and be the first man in should Alfred Morris get hurt."

Some of our staffers have Ryan Williams as high as #45, which would make him a great fifth running back and even a legitimate RB4. Adam Harstad's take: "Can Ryan Williams still become the back we thought he was before injury derailed his career before it started? More importantly, even if he can, will it matter if he's still stuck in Arizona?"

WR Summary:

We like Reggie Wayne as a second WR, but we consider your starting receivers, as a group, to be a little below par. Roddy White is our 10th ranked WR, and we have Wayne at #17.

We see Anquan Boldin as an average third receiver; he's a likely flex starter. Andre Roberts is shaky as a fourth receiver.

We might suggest adding a bit more depth here. See the end of the report for some suggestions on who to pick up.

As we mentioned earlier, the QB/receiver hookup tends to make your team a little more inconsistent. But that's not the case with the Boldin/Vernon Davis pair you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more consistent if anything. See this article (which was written before the 2008 season) for more discussion.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some members of our staff have Roddy White ranked as high as fourth, which would make him an above average first receiver. Jeff Tefertiller defends his high ranking as follows: "White has been a constant fixture toward the top of the receiver rankings. With Ryan under center, and Jones lined up across the formation, the veteran receiver will have ample opportunity to put up big numbers. "

Some members of our staff have Anquan Boldin ranked as high as 23rd, which would make him a great third receiver and even a legitimate WR2. Mark Wimer defends his high ranking as follows: "With Michael Crabtree out for regular season due to a blown Achilles tendon, Boldin is going to be the lead receiver for the 49ers - he'll get his share of balls and should be a consistent-if-unspectacular fantasy receiver. "

Some of our staffers have Andre Roberts as high as #31, which would make him a great fourth receiver and even a legitimate WR3. Matt Waldman's take: "Michael Floyd is the huge sleeper this year, but Roberts is out-playing the second-year receiver. More important, I think the Cardinals will need its tight end to block more than catch this year if they want to protect Carson Palmer. I also think Roberts has displayed a greater level of rapport with Carson Palmer. My peers are projecting between 300-330 completions for Palmer. I'm in that range, but I think the distribution will be heavily weighted to Fitzgerald, Roberts, and Floyd in that order, and not the tight ends or backs. The key to putting Fitzgerald in the slot and moving him around the formation has a lot to do with Roberts ability to play outside. Roberts had 114 targets and 65 catches in 15 games last year. I think he's capable of reaching 75-85 because of my below average confidence in the run game and tight end play in this Arians offense with Palmer at the helm. "

TE Summary:

Vernon Davis should be above average as a starting tight end. We have him ranked sixth overall at the position. We also think Jordan Cameron is a starting quality tight end in this league. He's a luxury.

Kicker Summary:

With Phil Dawson, you should be above average at the position.