Shitpushers IF - Footballguys.com team analysis

QB: Tom Brady
RB: Jamaal Charles, Steven Jackson, Isaac Redman, Bilal Powell, LeVeon Bell
WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Miles Austin, Steve Johnson, Chris Givens, Malcom Floyd, Santonio Holmes
TE: Rob Gronkowski
PK: Garrett Hartley

Overview:

You've put together a very interesting team here. Our numbers show it as being below average at all three core positions (QB, RB, and WR). And yet, somehow, we don't hate it. With proper care and feeding throughout the season, this team should be in the thick of things.

But your margin for error is probably slimmer than that of your fellow contenders. You're going to have to be diligent in your search for help through trades and the waiver wire.

Bottom line:
With great inseason management, we think you have about a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 65 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 48 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 2 of 2011:

Miles Austin vs. SF: 143 receiving yards, 3 TD
Rob Gronkowski vs. SD: 86 receiving yards, 2 TD
Tom Brady vs. SD: 423 passing yards, 3 TD
Larry Fitzgerald vs. WAS: 133 receiving yards, 1 TD

QB Summary:

We expect Tom Brady to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #4 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.

Despite your strong starting quarterback, we recommend taking a backup. See the end of this report for some specific suggestions.

A quick note about the Brady/Rob Gronkowski hookup you've got here: while we think the effect of the quarterback/receiver hookup has largely been exaggerated in fantasy football circles, it does have a tendency to make your team somewhat more inconsistent than comparable scoring duos from different NFL teams. But if you like the players at both ends of the connection, we do not see any need to make a change because of it.

RB Summary:

While your lack of depth at the position concerns us, we do like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 2.1 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Jamaal Charles ranked third and Steven Jackson ranked 15th.

Your bench doesn't look quite as strong. We don't particularly like Isaac Redman as a third running back.

Though some teams will probably be content to roster as few as three players here, it was not a bad idea to take a few extras because you're not particularly strong overall at the position. Of your remaining guys, we like Bilal Powell the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Isaac Redman is ranked #41 by some of our writers. Anthony Borbely reasons, "Redman will be part of a committee that will replace the injured LeVeon Bell. The third preseason game should tell mopre about how the Steelers will rotate the RBs. Until more is known about how the RBs will be used, I am ranking Redman as a mid-RB4, largely because I expect him to be the goal line RB. "

Some members of our staff have Bilal Powell ranked as high as 31st, which would make him a great fourth running back and even a legitimate RB3. Matt Waldman defends his high ranking as follows: "Powell looks like the best back in camp right now. However, I think his value will come as the check-down option in the passing game. The Jets offensive line looks better, but Mark Sanchez does not. This hurts the overall quality of the run game because I doubt this team will put together enough drives for either Ivory or Powell to get the work necessary to produce as reliable fantasy starters. "

WR Summary:

We see both your starters at receiver as below average. Larry Fitzgerald is our #8 ranked receiver, and we have Miles Austin at #23.

Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Steve Johnson should serve as a very solid third receiver; he's a likely flex starter. Chris Givens should also be solidly above average at WR4. We see Malcom Floyd as an average fifth receiver.

Because you're not particularly strong overall at the position, adding some depth here was a good idea. But we're not convinced Santonio Holmes is the right player for the job. Check the end of the report for some alternative suggestions.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some of our staffers have Larry Fitzgerald as high as #2, which would make him an above average first receiver. Matt Waldman's take: "If there is anyone happier than Larry Fitzgerald to see Carson Palmer in Arizona, it would be Carson Palmer. These two are excellent talents in need of each other. You may not believe me when I say this about the Palmer, but we all know that Fitzgerald just needed a competent passer with the deep accuracy and willingness to target him in tight coverage. Judging by the ridiculous number of catches that Rod Streater and Darrius Heyward-Bey dropped in tight coverage last year, I think we should see a return to PPR an performance prominence for Fitzgerald in a big way. The next 2-3 years might be the final hurrah for the big guy's fantasy standing as an elite option. Take advantage of it if you can. I see a Cutler-Marshall dynamic happening in Arizona, but w/more emphasis on the pass due to an average running game at best. "

Some of our staffers have Miles Austin as high as #22, which would make him a fine second receiver. Steve Holloway's take: "Miles Austin has had durability issues the past two seasons, but still finished as WR28 in 2012 and finished as WR3 and WR12 in 2009 and 2010. He should be roaming a little freer with Dez Bryant finally living up to his expectations. Even while missing games and playing through injuries, Austin has scored 31 TDs over the past four seasons and averages 15.3 ypc for his career. He should easily be more productive than his ADP in 2013 and with his future role in Dallas not being defined, he could be a dynasty buy. "

Some of our staffers have Malcom Floyd as high as #32, which would make him a great fifth receiver and even a legitimate WR3. Anthony Borbely's take: "With Danario Alexander out for the year, I expect Floyd to be the top receiver for the Chargers. He has been a WR3 for three consecutive seasons and that is despite missing a combined 11 games during those three years. For that reason I think mid-WR3 numbers are very reasonable. Floyd is questionable for week one but he has resumed light workouts and I am not worried at all about his sprained knee. I think Floyd is among the most undervalued players in drafts. "

Some members of our staff have Santonio Holmes ranked as high as 47th, which would make him a great sixth receiver and even a legitimate WR4. Adam Harstad defends his high ranking as follows: "Holmes has been mildly productive for most of his career, certainly more productive than this ranking would suggest, but it's hard to ignore that the Jets are rumored to be the second team who has soured on Holmes, despite his on-field contributions, because of his off-field headaches. Personally, I'd rather bet on a Jets receiver who hasn't been described as a "cancer" by his own teammates."

TE Summary:

As you are well aware, Rob Gronkowski is an elite tight end. We have him ranked third overall at the position. He's about 1.1 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. Given your league rules and the presence of Gronkowski, your decision to roll with just one tight end is a reasonable one.

Kicker Summary:

Garrett Hartley, our sixth ranked kicker, won't win the league for you, but he'll do.