Brooklyn Blackbirds - Footballguys.com team analysis

QB: Matthew Stafford, Carson Palmer
RB: Arian Foster, Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram, Montee Ball, Ben Tate
WR: Demaryius Thomas, Dwayne Bowe, Mike Wallace, Lance Moore, Mohamed Sanu
TE: Jared Cook
PK: Dan Bailey

Overview:

In a competitive league, almost every team has a weakness. It's almost impossible to build a team that is strong at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and wide receiver). As you probably suspect, we perceive your weakness to be at the quarterback position. Of all the deficiencies to have though, this is usually the easiest one to mask.

Footballguys owner David Dodds even recommends you go into your draft with the goal of landing the top RBs and WRs while waiting to grab QBs late. Value-Based Drafting principles also suggest that teams constructed in this manner end up being strong. But for this team to reach it's full potential, you might need to have a quick trigger finger at the QB position and stay on the look out for good quarterback help. Last year Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck could be had very cheap in August and September, but ended up contributing to a lot of fantasy championships. In 2011 it was Cam Newton; in 2010 it was Michael Vick and Josh Freeman; in 2008, the same could be said of players like Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, and Matt Cassel. Quarterbacks like these can be found every year, and that could be the key to your team's success.

So although this team isn't perfect (few are), it's one that should be in the mix with good inseason management.

Players we particularly like on this team include Demaryius Thomas, Dwayne Bowe, and Reggie Bush. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line:
With great inseason management, we think you have about a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 65 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 48 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 2 of 2012:

Reggie Bush vs. OAK: 197 combined yards, 2 TD
Dwayne Bowe vs. BUF: 102 receiving yards, 2 TD
Ben Tate vs. JAX: 97 combined yards, 2 TD
Arian Foster vs. JAX: 147 combined yards, 1 TD

QB Summary:

We have Matthew Stafford rated #12 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. And we're not crazy about Carson Palmer (ranked #27 among quarterbacks) as a backup. If Stafford turns in the season we expect, this position won't ruin you, but it probably won't be a strength either. And if things go wrong, it could be a long year at QB.

Note that Stafford and Palmer have the same bye week. We don't necessarily disapprove of this if you like both of them, but don't forget about it. You have no other options at this point.

A quick note about the same-team Stafford/Reggie Bush duo you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair. See this article (which was written before the 2008 season) for more discussion.

RB Summary:

Your starting running back group is a strength, particularly Reggie Bush as a second running back. We figure them at a combined 1.1 points per game better than an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Arian Foster ranked eighth and Bush ranked 13th.

Your bench doesn't look quite as strong. Mark Ingram should be a good third running back.

Since you're strong at the position, you probably don't absolutely need to roster more than three players here. Stashing Ben Tate, however, is probably a wise move in case something happens to Foster. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some members of our staff have Arian Foster ranked as high as second, which would make him an above average first running back. Anthony Borbely defends his high ranking as follows: "Foster has averaged more than 1800 yards from scrimmage and has 47 TDs in the last three years. With his high expected TD numbers, I think Foster has a great chance to be the top fantasy RB this year. There is some concern about Foster's back and leg issues, but he was activated from the PUP list and appears to be on target for the regular season opener. While there is risk, I am ranking Foster second to Adrian Peterson because of the huge numbers he has posted year after year. "

Some of our staffers have Mark Ingram as high as #24, which would make him a great third running back and even a legitimate RB2. Andrew Garda's take: "Ingram got the most carries last season, but that doesn't make much of a difference as this is a pretty messy running back-by-committee situation. I expect Ingram to get more touches this year as he takes some of the workload off Pierre Thomas. Ingram is also what passes for a goal line back in this group, for what little that's worth. Ultimately, he will get enough yards to function as a No. 2 running back for a fantasy team, or a flex spot player. "

WR Summary:

Nice work here. We like both your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 2.0 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Demaryius Thomas is our fourth ranked WR, and we have Dwayne Bowe at #12.

Mike Wallace should serve as a very solid third receiver; he's a likely flex starter. Lance Moore should also be solidly above average at WR4. We don't particularly like Mohamed Sanu as a fifth receiver.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some members of our staff have Mohamed Sanu ranked as high as 52nd, which would make him an above average fifth receiver. Matt Waldman defends his high ranking as follows: "Sanu is a slower version of Percy Harvin, but dynamic enough to make a difference in this Bengals receiving corps. He may have to battle for time with Marvin Jones to earn No.2-caliber targets. I expect red zone production, but Jones earning the majority of targets between the 20s. "

TE Summary:

Jared Cook, who we have ranked #9, is below average but probably adequate as a starting tight end. You might get by with only Cook, but some additional help here probably wouldn't hurt.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some members of our staff have Jared Cook ranked as high as fifth, which would make him an above average first tight end. Matt Waldman defends his high ranking as follows: "Cook is reunited with Jeff Fisher in St. Louis and will battle for time with Lance Kendricks. Cook is the more natural receiver, but neither are great blockers. The addition of Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin to a promising Chris Givens clouds the picture in terms of target priority. Cook's range of fantasy potential is broad at this stage, but if he does become a TE1, it will not be the norm for his career. That said, his former teammate Cortland Finnegan has told the media that Cook looks night and day better from his years in Tennessee and it makes him a nice risk-reward bargain. "

Kicker Summary:

Dan Bailey, our 13th ranked kicker, is below average but probably adequate.