Vallensbaek Nutcrackerz - Footballguys.com team analysis

QB: Russell Wilson, Eli Manning
RB: Marshawn Lynch, Chris Johnson, Daryl Richardson, Christine Michael
WR: Andre Johnson, Danny Amendola, Marques Colston, Kenbrell Thompkins, Darrius Heyward-Bey
TE: Greg Olsen, Rob Housler
PK: Matt Prater

Overview:

In a competitive league, almost every team has a weakness. It's almost impossible to build a team that is strong at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and wide receiver). As you probably suspect, we perceive your weakness to be at the quarterback position. Of all the deficiencies to have though, this is usually the easiest one to mask.

Footballguys owner David Dodds even recommends you go into your draft with the goal of landing the top RBs and WRs while waiting to grab QBs late. Value-Based Drafting principles also suggest that teams constructed in this manner end up being strong. But for this team to reach it's full potential, you might need to have a quick trigger finger at the QB position and stay on the look out for good quarterback help. Last year Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck could be had very cheap in August and September, but ended up contributing to a lot of fantasy championships. In 2011 it was Cam Newton; in 2010 it was Michael Vick and Josh Freeman; in 2008, the same could be said of players like Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, and Matt Cassel. Quarterbacks like these can be found every year, and that could be the key to your team's success.

So although this team isn't perfect (few are), it should still be a strong contender.

Players we particularly like on this team include Danny Amendola, Daryl Richardson, Chris Johnson, and Matt Prater. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line:
With great inseason management, we think you have about a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 63 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:

We have Russell Wilson rated #11 among quarterbacks, which makes him a less-than-stellar starter in this league. But we like the selection of our #14-rated QB, Eli Manning, to go with him. Hopefully between the two of them, you should be able to cobble together some good production at the position, but this strategy always carries with it the downside that you'll drive yourself crazy trying to decide who to start from week to week.

Incidentally, these two have a terrific combined schedule and a decent playoff schedule too. If you simply played the one with the better matchup each week, this is the schedule you'd face:
DAL | DEN | JAX | KC | PHI | TEN | MIN | PHI | TB | OAK | MIN | DAL | NO | SD | NYG | DET

A quick note about the same-team Wilson/Marshawn Lynch duo you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair. See this article (which was written before the 2008 season) for more discussion.

RB Summary:

Your starting running back group is a strength, particularly Chris Johnson as a second running back. We figure them at a combined 1.1 points per game better than an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Marshawn Lynch ranked at #10 and Johnson ranked 12th.

Your bench also looks good. Daryl Richardson should serve as a very solid third running back.

We're not sure Christine Michael would otherwise be roster-worthy, but he's good insurance for Lynch.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some of our staffers have Marshawn Lynch as high as #5, which would make him an above average first running back. Jeff Pasquino's take: "At first I was not a big fan of Marshawn Lynch, but since he has reemerged as a true feature tailback in Seattle and led that offensive running game for a title contender I am right behind him - almost. There are a few concerns with Lynch this year, starting with a potential suspension due to some off the field incidents. If Lynch can avoid that, he must contend with not just one young tailback who wants the ball but now two, as the Seahawks drafted Christine Michael to push both Robert Turbin and Lynch. If that wasn't enough, QB Russell Wilson can run himself, as can his newest receiver, Percy Harvin. Lynch may be sliding down my rankings soon."

Christine Michael is ranked #38 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average fourth running back. Chad Parsons reasons, "Michael is more talented than Robert Turbin and Marshawn Lynch is far from a model citzen as the Seahawks starting running back. As an older power back, Lynch could decline at a quicker rate than his running back peers. Michael is the ultimate stash-and-hope back that could win fantasy leagues if he gets time as a starter considering his low price point."

WR Summary:

Your starting receiver group is a strength, particularly Danny Amendola as a second receiver. Andre Johnson is our seventh ranked WR, and we have Amendola at #14.

Your bench also looks good. Marques Colston looks great as a third receiver; he's a likely flex starter. Kenbrell Thompkins, on the other hand, is an average-at-best fourth WR. Darrius Heyward-Bey is a little below average as a fifth receiver.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some of our staffers have Andre Johnson as high as #3, which would make him an above average first receiver. Jeff Tefertiller's take: "Expect Johnson's role to remain the same. Injuries are the only concern for the veteran receiver. The addition of Hopkins could actually help keep coverages honest ... much moreso than Kevin Walter"

Some of our staffers have Kenbrell Thompkins as high as #42, which would make him an above average fourth receiver. Matt Waldman's take: "I've written plenty about Thompkins. He looks a week away from being locked in as the WR2 in this offense. But in the past the WR2 in the Patriots system ranges from Deion Branch production to Randy Moss. I'm thinking what Brandon Lloyd did last year is probably Thompkins' absolute upside, which means WR3 fantasy production - at best. Worth picking late, but as much as I like him, don't go overboard. "

Some members of our staff have Darrius Heyward-Bey ranked as high as 53rd, which would make him an above average fifth receiver. Ryan Hester defends his high ranking as follows: "Heyward-Bey will have opportunities to make big plays and showcase his elite speed in an up-and-coming offense. Currently, he's taking reps as the second receiver, running with the first team offense. This is positive for his outlook and would push T.Y. Hilton to the slot role on a team that is looking to play with two tight ends (and therefore no slot receiver) rather often this season."

TE Summary:

Greg Olsen is viable but below average as a starting tight end (we have him ranked #7). We're also not too fired up about Rob Housler as a backup.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some members of our staff have Greg Olsen ranked as high as third, which would make him an above average first tight end. Heath Cummings defends his high ranking as follows: "I see Olsen as the most likely tight end to improve on his 2012 numbers. Olsen is Cam Newton's second favorite target behind olnly Steve Smith and Olsen should be Newton's first look in the red zone this season. I don't think he reaches the level of Jimmy Graham or a healthy Rob Gronkowski but anything outide of that is possible."

Some members of our staff have Rob Housler ranked as high as 19th, which would make him a fine second tight end. Jeff Pasquino defends his high ranking as follows: "The Cardinals acquired a much better starting quarterback in Carson Palmer over the offseason, which greatly improved the fantasy outlook for all of the Cardinal receivers. Housler will be the starting tight end once again this year for Arizona, and given that Palmer is a significant upgrade over the previous pass throwers out in the desert he should be able to find the end zone at least a few times this season. Given Housler's solid reception numbers (45 catches, 417 yards) despite zero touchdowns, Housler has good upside in 2013 and beyond now that he has a legitimate quarterback under center."

Kicker Summary:

With Matt Prater, you should be above average at the position.