Vallensbaek Happy Slappers - Footballguys.com team analysis

QB: Peyton Manning, Sam Bradford
RB: C.J. Spiller, Lamar Miller, Daniel Thomas, Bryce Brown
WR: Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith, James Jones, Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins, Ryan Broyles
TE: Kyle Rudolph
PK: Sebastian Janikowski

Overview:

We'll start by complimenting you on your strength at quarterback and receiver. As you know, it's very difficult in a competitive league to assemble a team that is strong at QB, RB, and WR, so just about every team will have a weakness. As you probably suspect, we perceive yours to be at running back.

This is often a tough weakness to mask, though, so you must be prepared to be very active in waivers and trades to change the composition of this team. Most drafts go very deep at the RB position and that usually means there are just table scraps left for those weak at the position.

But the good news is that running backs do emerge every year post-draft. Last year guys like Alfred Morris and Vick Ballard could be had dirt cheap at the draft. In fact most likely were not rostered before the season started. Yet all of these players could have taken a weakness and made it into a strength for their prospective owners. This is the move you are going to need to make this year to take this team to a clear contender.

Bottom line:
With great inseason management, we think you have about a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 60 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 45 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:

You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Peyton Manning should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #3 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 1.5 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.

Our projections don't show Sam Bradford as being a top-notch backup, but the issue will be moot as long as Manning stays healthy.

Incidentally, Bradford has what we project as a good matchup (TEN) during Manning's bye.

RB Summary:

Your starting running backs should, as a unit, be adequate but not great. In particular we like C.J. Spiller as a top RB. Our projections have Spiller ranked at #5 and Lamar Miller ranked 21st.

Daniel Thomas might be a bit of a reach at third RB, but we understand the desire to handcuff.

Bryce Brown is a solid depth pick.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some members of our staff have Lamar Miller ranked as high as 18th, which would make him an above average second running back. Ryan Hester defends his high ranking as follows: "It appeared as though Miller had been handed the proverbial keys to the Miami backfield, but Miami's front office continues to hold on to the idea that Daniel Thomas can contribute and make this a committee situation. Miller is explosive and is a much better runner than Thomas but will have to become a consistent pass-blocker to stay on the field. He should show the gap between he and Thomas early in the regular season and run his way to being a solid RB2 with RB1 upside."

Some of our staffers have Daniel Thomas as high as #36, which would make him a fine third running back. Mark Wimer's take: "Thomas appears to be locked in as the backup running back in Miami - he may plunge in some TDs this year as a change-of-pace option. "

Some members of our staff have Bryce Brown ranked as high as 31st, which would make him a great fourth running back and even a legitimate RB3. Heath Cummings defends his high ranking as follows: "Chip Kelly's offense will provide plenty of opportunities for both Bryce Brown and LeSean McCoy to be successful. While McCoy is still the starter, and unlikely to go anywhere, I can see two stud running backs in this system. The addition of Felix Jones only bolsters that opinion as I wouldn't be surprised to see Brown and McCoy on the field together plenty in 2013."

WR Summary:

Your starting receivers should, as a unit, be adequate but not great. In particular we like Brandon Marshall as a top WR. Marshall is our sixth ranked WR, and we have Steve Smith at #21.

Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. We see James Jones as an average third receiver; he's a likely flex starter. Tavon Austin is an excellent WR4. DeAndre Hopkins looks great as a fifth receiver.

Ryan Broyles is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some members of our staff have Steve Smith ranked as high as 16th, which would make him an above average second receiver. Jason Wood defends his high ranking as follows: "Another offseason has gone by without the Panthers bolstering the receiving corps, which means Steve Smith is a mortal lock to be among the NFL's most targeted receivers."

Some members of our staff have James Jones ranked as high as 18th, which would make him a great third receiver and even a legitimate WR2. Mark Wimer defends his high ranking as follows: "Aaron Rodgers has a great problem (for an NFL quarterback) - a plethora of quality wide receivers. However, news on August 6 that Jordy Nelson had knee surgery on Monday, August 5 and that Nelson is out 4-6 weeks means that I've bumped Randall Cobb and James Jones up my rankings quite a bit - they will get a lot of reps with Rodgers during training camp and Nelson may have trouble getting back into the starting lineup even when/if he is healthy again. "

TE Summary:

Kyle Rudolph, who we have ranked #8, is below average but probably adequate as a starting tight end. You might get by with only Rudolph, but some additional help here probably wouldn't hurt.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Kyle Rudolph is ranked #5 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average first tight end. Jeff Pasquino reasons, "Kyle Rudolph was the favorite target for Christian Ponder last year, thanks in part to the loss of Percy Harvin for over half of the year. Ponder and Rudolph connected all year to give Rudolph impressive numbers. Both players will look to build on last year's efforts as the Minnesota passing game develops with new wide receivers Cordarrelle Patterson and Greg Jennings. Defenses will have to play Adrian Peterson first, which should open up the middle for Rudolph to take advantage again this year."

Kicker Summary:

We don't think Sebastian Janikowski is starter quality in this league. Keep a sharp eye on the waiver wire.